Monday, July 8, 2019

What to do in the currently falling stock market?

The current steep fall of Nifty50 in indian stock markets has been causing a lot of panic among investors.
I have been getting calls about people asking if this is time for exit.
My take, for my personal investment is somewhat not aligned with this panic.
In my understanding, this correction is kind of normal.
We should not forget that the steep rise of market that had happened based on election results was a rise based on sentiment and not on fundamentals. So it had to get corrected once the realities would set in. And they did set in after the budget came out.
Have a look at the Nifty chart below
Nifty in last 1 year
If you will observe, the gradual uptrend is maintained
Nifty has fibonacci levels and it is currently trading at 38.2% which is a known level
Unless it breaches 10,800, which is 100% for the last 6 month study, I am not worried. A fall below that would indicate fundamental issues. But a breach of 11235 would give rise to possibility of a free fall of another 400 or so points.

What am I doing right now?
It is uncertain times currently. The govt has recently come to power so for next 3 years, the budgets will be unfriendly for the most people.
I am doing my research and here is what i have found about some stocks:

The top 20 stocks that are below their 100 days EMA:
Analyse them see if you wish to add them to portfolio
Be aware of high volatility ones like India bulls hsg fin, indusind bank, ultratech cement

Code Close Price ema100
ADANIENT 138.90 146.23
ADANIPORTS 397.80 399.55
BAJAJFINSV 7593.05 7938.88
BANKINDIA 84.45 90.27
BEL 101.20 103.73
BHEL 67.30 69.86
CHOLAFIN 276.35 282.61
DLF 182.40 182.82
HAVELLS 746.55 763.48
HEXAWARE 358.05 361.24
HINDPETRO 283.10 286.68
HINDUNILVR 1753.55 1769.42
IBULHSGFIN 689.00 701.91
INDUSINDBK 1476.50 1523.42
MANAPPURAM 129.55 129.87
MUTHOOTFIN 601.85 612.70
NTPC 129.60 133.84
PNB 72.80 81.32
RAMCOCEM 759.35 771.97
TATAELXSI 856.90 888.73
ULTRACEMCO 4392.35 4463.26
UNIONBANK 77.05 79.22
VOLTAS 603.50 607.92

The following stocks have strong trends (up or down) and this can be utilised, in conjunction with other indicators, to go long or short on them

Code Close Price ADX
ADANIPOWER 62.10 32.18
AUROPHARMA 586.80 39.34
BAJAJFINSV 7593.05 30.09
BAJFINANCE 3413.30 36.85
CADILAHC 224.65 32.29
CASTROLIND 125.65 40.32
CESC 768.55 35.57
CONCOR 554.00 43.81
DHFL 77.80 40.18
DRREDDY 2595.70 32.98
ESCORTS 519.40 32.46
GLENMARK 436.55 61.86
HDFC 2259.95 35.59
HEXAWARE 358.05 33.73
ITC 277.45 33.37
JINDALSTEL 135.35 30.21
LICHSGFIN 550.55 36.95
MINDTREE 769.25 42.22
NESTLEIND 11801.50 36.61
NTPC 129.60 37.28
OFSS 3217.55 31.94
PFC 127.50 34.57
RECLTD 160.45 34.21
RELCAPITAL 61.00 37.47
RELINFRA 50.00 34.21
SIEMENS 1247.35 36.08
SRF 2880.60 31.56
STAR 372.10 34.92
SUNPHARMA 366.80 39.17
TATAGLOBAL 263.55 48.23
TATAMOTORS 154.55 31.32
TECHM 680.35 39.57
TITAN 1252.45 37.10
TORNTPOWER 294.30 37.21
TVSMOTOR 411.10 30.39
YESBANK 93.15 53.04

Further, the following stocks have bullish crossovers with high ADX so they are kind of bullish. But keep in mind that very few of them are bluechip. Also note that some of them like Yes bank are troubled stocks, which have been falling of late, so a bullish crossover in them is just stabilisation, and not an indicator to buy.
Code
Close Price
ADX
MACD
AXISGOLD
3021.85
40.09
37.67
BFINVEST
284.30
32.28
6.45
BSLGOLDETF
3199.00
51.42
45.97
CELESTIAL
3.60
45.56
-0.40
CHOLAHLDNG
474.50
36.30
-7.18
HOVS
74.15
39.80
-12.12
INNOVATIVE
17.00
36.05
-1.30
JALAN
4.70
67.83
-1.83
KOTAKGOLD
300.10
32.77
3.61
MIC
0.75
40.93
-0.05
NATNLSTEEL
3.05
32.68
-0.27
PNBGILTS
34.95
48.39
0.36
SETFGOLD
3057.25
51.77
35.50
UNIINFO
32.00
56.60
-1.86
YESBANK
93.15
53.04
-14.05

Hope this analysis will help some of you.
Connect with me on Telegram app @drsbhatia